With thousands of mutual funds to choose from, picking the “right one” can be a daunting task. Most investors know not to fall for a short term hot streak – one or two years isn’t a long enough track record to show superior skill of the management team over sheer luck – but where should you start?

Step 1.  Figure out what you really need.

To be a successful investor, be it in mutual funds, hedge funds or whatever, you need to determine what your objectives really are and what asset allocation you’ll need to meet those objectives. And sorry to tell you this, but “to get rich” is not an objective.

Objective.

For your objective to be meaningful and achievable, it needs to be specific. If you can determine exact numbers, then you’re off to a great start. But even if the numbers are not exact or may even be unknowable, you can still use that as an objective.

For example, if your objective is to have $25,000 in 5 – 7 years for a new car, then you have a defined timeframe, and target amount. From that you can then figure out how much you can invest over that time  frame and see how much return on your money you’ll need to get there. (There are calculators for this kind of thing).

Even if your objective is a bit less knowable, say saving for retirement, you can use ballpark figures for determine the “best guess” for what you’ll need 15, 20, even 30 years out from today. The key is knowing that this is just a guess, based on current trends. In the case of retirement planning you reevaluate your goals and assumptions on a regular basis, every 5 -10 years for example.

The Takeaway. The point to take away from all of this is that your objective (amount and time frame) will be a key component in determining your risk level and asset allocation. You can (and should) invest more heavily in stocks for retirement which is decades away than for the objective that’s 5-7 years away.

Asset Allocation.

Put simply, an asset allocation is which types of investments you choose to put your money in, and in what proportions.

Different types, or classes of investments carry with them different levels of risk and average return. Bonds, for instance, are typically less risky than stocks, though that is a generalization since there are subclasses of stocks and bonds that can be very similar in terms of risk and reward.

Key points of concern are correlation (how much one investment be behaves like another), volatility, and risk.

The Takeaway. Some studies have shown that asset allocation alone is responsible for up to 90% of your total return, so be sure to study up on this stage and know what you’re doing.

Step 2. Picking mutual funds.

Since this article is about mutual funds, I will focus on that aspect of an asset allocation. But remember – if your investment goals are short term, then mutual funds may not be right for you.

Searching for a mutual fund.

If you have an idea of what type of fund you’re looking for, say a small cap stock fund, and you’d like to see what mutual funds fit that category, you can use Kiplinger’s Fund Finder. This tool allows you to select broad categories (like small cap stock funds) and narrow the results by a host of criteria, including:

• 1,3 or 5 year return.
• Morningstar rating.
• Return in a down market (i.e. worst loss).
• Expense ratio.
• Turnover ratio.
• Length of time the current management team has been in place.

And much more. It’s very handy for gathering a list of mutual funds to choose from, but you still need to do some comparison work, but more on that in a minute.

Gathering information on a specific fund.

Once you have a list of funds, or maybe you’re looking for details about a specific fund in your 401(k), you can use FINRA’s Fund Analyzer to get the specifics about a fund.

These results include average return of a given investment amount over a specified period of time, and the total expenses. It also provides a breakdown of the allocation within the fund, investment style of the fund (i.e. growth, vs value, etc..) the Morningstar rating and much more.

Some thoughts on past performance not guaranteeing future results…

By now I’m sure you’ve heard that familiar phrase of investment marketing: “Past performance is not a guarantee of future return”, or something similar. It’s usually uttered as a means of protecting themselves from costly liability in court situations, but it is also a significant thing to bear in mind when picking a fund.

The thing to remember is that just because a fund had a rip-roaring 3 years does not mean it’s going to continue to rip and roar its way up the charts for the next 3 years. Maybe it was a small cap stock fund and the economy has just come out of a recession. If that’s the case, then you can expect those returns to level off a bit as the economic cycle matures and investors seek blue chip companies over small cap.

But long term performance can be a good indicator of a fund’s quality. Look for good for funds with good performance over a 5-10 year period.

Some thoughts on volatility…

Volatility is simple a measure of how much the fund’s price jumps around; it’s a measure of how much of a roller coaster ride the fund is. The lower the volatility, the smoother the ride, but not necessarily the higher return. The thing to keep in mind with volatility is that it doesn’t matter how bumpy the ride is if you don’t need the money for another 20 years. In other words, volatility is less important for long term investments.

Some thoughts on Managers…

Things you’ll want to know about the fund’s manager include:

• Does the manager admit mistakes?
• Does the manager respect the investors?
• Does the manager sound too greedy?
• Does the manager know what he’s talking about?
• Is the manager personally invested in the fund? (that’s a good thing)
• Does the manager stick to his stated strategy?

One last thought about fees…

Not all funds are created equal, and one of the biggest defining characteristics of a fund may be its fees. All other things being equally, higher fee funds will perform worse than lower fee funds. But things are rarely equally and the thing you need to find out is whether the higher fee fund significantly outperforms its peers over an extended period. In other words, is it worth the extra money? If it’s just doing the same as an index fund, it’s not worth the money.

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