Oct 08 2009

Is the Bull Market Running Out of Steam?

Earlier, I blogged about how the Dow was having trouble crossing the 10,000 point barrier. The basic premise was that the recent market rally was not due to fundamentals, but rather due to the market previously being over sold.

Well, a recent article from the AP points out that “Alcoa returns to profit as cost cuts”, which I think supports one of my other thoughts on the rally. Namely, that the recent “good earnings” are not a sign of fundamental growth and profitability but rather due to reducing overhead.

“Painful cost-cutting and rising sales to automakers helped the nation’s largest aluminum producer return to profitability for the first time in nine months.”

This is an essential part of the market healing itself, but you can’t cut your way to growth. Unless the fundamentals change, the recent rally is going to run out of steam, if not head back down for a double dip.

I can’t predict the future, but I think this bears consideration and some caution may be prudent.

Still, there is some good news abroad in all this:

“We do clearly see growth, substantial growth … in China,” Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld told analysts and reporters after the company reported results. “(The) second half of the year is clearly better than the first half in many industries and many regions.”


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